Monday, September 10, 2007

Where are the jobs?

A comparison of projected employment in the city of Toronto compared to actual employment figures. Extrapolated from the City of Toronto Official Plan, 2005 projected 1,519,000, minus actual of 1,262,700, leaves a shortfall of 256,300. From the city of Toronto Places to Grow forecast, 1,460,000, minus actual of 1,262,700, leaves a shortfall of 197,300.

What possible effect can this have on the crucial non-residential assessment base? In 2005 the average non residential assessment per employed person in the city was $43,000. Taken at the average (2007) tax rate of 2.12% that means if, in a worse case scenario, the city may have missed out on a potential 230 million in revenue. While it is more likely that the city has not suffered such a large impact, even at one third of the projections that leaves a considerable amount of missed revenue. Toronto has clearly taxed its non residential sector beyond the point of being beneficial. The current rates have proven to be counter productive.

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